Canny's Jury Stats Thread
Mar 6, 2021 0:01:09 GMT
OperatorMeme, Supervisor Silverclaw, and 1 more like this
Post by Can Opener on Mar 6, 2021 0:01:09 GMT
So I asked each finalist for the percentage chance of each Jurors' vote going for each of them, and here is the data in a chart:
Note: Each finalist had one Juror whose numbers did not add up to 100, so I have adjusted their predictions for that Juror accordingly.
Avocado predicts 40.90% of the votes for himself, 31.32% of the votes for Rey, and 27.78% of the votes for T&H. In votes, this would be 3.27 Avocado votes, 2.51 Rey votes, and 2.22 T&H votes.
Rey predicts 17.33% of the votes for Avocado, 48.68% of the votes for herself, and 33.99% of the votes for T&H. In votes, this would be 1.39 Avocado votes, 3.89 Rey votes, and 2.72 T&H votes.
Tortoise and Hare predict 5.64% of the votes for Avocado, 46.75% of the votes for Rey, and 47.61% of the votes for themselves. In votes, this would be 0.45 Avocado votes, 3.74 Rey votes, and 3.81 T&H votes.
All three give themselves the highest percentage of the total votes. Rey and T&H give each other second best odds, while Avo has Rey in second slightly above T&H. T&H are notably down on Avo’s potential for votes compared to the other two, while Avo is notably high on his own odds.
Avocado thinks the final vote will be either 4 (Avo)- 3 (Rey)- 1 (T&H) or 4 (Avo)- 2 (Rey)- 2 (T&H).
Dark Rey thinks the final vote will be either 5 (Rey)- 3 (T&H) or 4 (Rey)- 4 (T&H).
Tortoise and Hare thinks the final vote will be either 5 (T&H)- 3 (Rey) or 4 (T&H)- 4 (Rey).
And finally, we can take the average to determine what all three finalists combined think the most likely final outcome is. That gives us:
Dave: 26.67% Avo, 41.67% Rey, 31.67% T&H
Droids: 34.07% Avo, 18.52% Rey, 47.41% T&H
Bonobo: 11.67% Avo, 26.67% Rey, 61.67% T&H
Bard: 38.33% Avo, 20% Rey, 41.66% T&H
Maggie: 39.70% Avo, 38.33% Rey, 21.97% T&H
Bees: 13.70% Avo, 21.48% Rey, 64.81% T&H
Cleric: 6.17% Avo, 91.33% Rey, 2.5% T&H
Grogu: 0% Avo, 80% Rey, 20% T&H
Avo: Maggie
Rey: Dave, Cleric, and Grogu
T&H: Droids, Bonobo, Bard, Bees
So if it played out this way, the final vote would be 4-3-1 with T&H winning and Rey getting 2nd. I’m not sure how useful this is though because some of these reads seem very wrong to me. Avo and T&H both have extremely different perspectives about Avo’s votes, and I think that skews the data. Bard for example we already have good reason to believe voted Avo, but this data has him as a T&H vote. And Maggie is the lone Avo vote feels a bit random to me, but perhaps I'm missing something.
Ultimately, I think Avo is the least likely winner, but all three maybe could have a path to victory here. Avo’s would probably involve some kind of vote split, but I could see a scenario where he gets, for example, Dave, Droids and Bard, and then he wins because the other four votes are split between Rey and T&H. I don’t think it’s impossible. His reads on some of the votes strike me as a bit delusional, however. I mean in what world does he have a 30% chance at Bees’ vote? I think his perception of how the votes are likely to fall is likely the worst, but we'll have to wait and see.
Rey has a clear path to victory as well, through Cleric, Grogu, and Maggie. She would only need one more vote as long as the other votes are divided, and I think they will be. Bard at least seems to have voted Avocado. I see a few different places for Rey to get that extra vote, though she is definitely hurt by not having Avo’s tiebreaker any longer. I think Rey's perception of how the votes of liable to fall is probably the most accurate of any of the finalists, just because she doesn't write off Avocado like T&H or vastly overrate Avocado like Avocado himself.
And now that they’ve gotten Avo’s tiebreaker vote, I think that T&H are the favorites to win. The biggest thorn in T&H’s side is probably Avo’s relatively strong performance at FTC all things considered, since there is a very real risk that Avo could pull away votes that T&H would have otherwise gotten and cost him the win. Although they have fewer locked votes than Rey, I think they have a broader base from which to pull votes. Rey has a higher floor, but I think they have a higher ceiling. We'll know soon enough, however!
My final prediction:
Dave: T&H
Droids: Avo
Bonobo: T&H
Bard: Avo
Maggie: T&H
Bees: T&H
Cleric: Rey
Grogu: Rey
This would be 4-2-2 in favor of T&H. I feel most uncertain about Dave, Bonobo and Maggie however, and that is where the winner of the game will likely be determined.
What do you guys think? Any other interesting things you can draw out of this data? What are your final predictions for how the vote will go down?
Note: Each finalist had one Juror whose numbers did not add up to 100, so I have adjusted their predictions for that Juror accordingly.
Percentage of Total Vote Predictions
Avocado predicts 40.90% of the votes for himself, 31.32% of the votes for Rey, and 27.78% of the votes for T&H. In votes, this would be 3.27 Avocado votes, 2.51 Rey votes, and 2.22 T&H votes.
Rey predicts 17.33% of the votes for Avocado, 48.68% of the votes for herself, and 33.99% of the votes for T&H. In votes, this would be 1.39 Avocado votes, 3.89 Rey votes, and 2.72 T&H votes.
Tortoise and Hare predict 5.64% of the votes for Avocado, 46.75% of the votes for Rey, and 47.61% of the votes for themselves. In votes, this would be 0.45 Avocado votes, 3.74 Rey votes, and 3.81 T&H votes.
All three give themselves the highest percentage of the total votes. Rey and T&H give each other second best odds, while Avo has Rey in second slightly above T&H. T&H are notably down on Avo’s potential for votes compared to the other two, while Avo is notably high on his own odds.
Actual Vote Predictions
But of course, all of this is limited in its utility because ultimately a Juror with a 100% chance of voting for you and a Juror with a 51% chance both only count for one vote, so Rey is benefitting in these numbers due to the fact that she has more votes which are perceived to be locked. If we just take the finalists’ best guesses…Avocado thinks the final vote will be either 4 (Avo)- 3 (Rey)- 1 (T&H) or 4 (Avo)- 2 (Rey)- 2 (T&H).
Dark Rey thinks the final vote will be either 5 (Rey)- 3 (T&H) or 4 (Rey)- 4 (T&H).
Tortoise and Hare thinks the final vote will be either 5 (T&H)- 3 (Rey) or 4 (T&H)- 4 (Rey).
Average of All Three Finalists' Predictions
And finally, we can take the average to determine what all three finalists combined think the most likely final outcome is. That gives us:
Dave: 26.67% Avo, 41.67% Rey, 31.67% T&H
Droids: 34.07% Avo, 18.52% Rey, 47.41% T&H
Bonobo: 11.67% Avo, 26.67% Rey, 61.67% T&H
Bard: 38.33% Avo, 20% Rey, 41.66% T&H
Maggie: 39.70% Avo, 38.33% Rey, 21.97% T&H
Bees: 13.70% Avo, 21.48% Rey, 64.81% T&H
Cleric: 6.17% Avo, 91.33% Rey, 2.5% T&H
Grogu: 0% Avo, 80% Rey, 20% T&H
Avo: Maggie
Rey: Dave, Cleric, and Grogu
T&H: Droids, Bonobo, Bard, Bees
So if it played out this way, the final vote would be 4-3-1 with T&H winning and Rey getting 2nd. I’m not sure how useful this is though because some of these reads seem very wrong to me. Avo and T&H both have extremely different perspectives about Avo’s votes, and I think that skews the data. Bard for example we already have good reason to believe voted Avo, but this data has him as a T&H vote. And Maggie is the lone Avo vote feels a bit random to me, but perhaps I'm missing something.
Canny's Analysis
Ultimately, I think Avo is the least likely winner, but all three maybe could have a path to victory here. Avo’s would probably involve some kind of vote split, but I could see a scenario where he gets, for example, Dave, Droids and Bard, and then he wins because the other four votes are split between Rey and T&H. I don’t think it’s impossible. His reads on some of the votes strike me as a bit delusional, however. I mean in what world does he have a 30% chance at Bees’ vote? I think his perception of how the votes are likely to fall is likely the worst, but we'll have to wait and see.
Rey has a clear path to victory as well, through Cleric, Grogu, and Maggie. She would only need one more vote as long as the other votes are divided, and I think they will be. Bard at least seems to have voted Avocado. I see a few different places for Rey to get that extra vote, though she is definitely hurt by not having Avo’s tiebreaker any longer. I think Rey's perception of how the votes of liable to fall is probably the most accurate of any of the finalists, just because she doesn't write off Avocado like T&H or vastly overrate Avocado like Avocado himself.
And now that they’ve gotten Avo’s tiebreaker vote, I think that T&H are the favorites to win. The biggest thorn in T&H’s side is probably Avo’s relatively strong performance at FTC all things considered, since there is a very real risk that Avo could pull away votes that T&H would have otherwise gotten and cost him the win. Although they have fewer locked votes than Rey, I think they have a broader base from which to pull votes. Rey has a higher floor, but I think they have a higher ceiling. We'll know soon enough, however!
My final prediction:
Dave: T&H
Droids: Avo
Bonobo: T&H
Bard: Avo
Maggie: T&H
Bees: T&H
Cleric: Rey
Grogu: Rey
This would be 4-2-2 in favor of T&H. I feel most uncertain about Dave, Bonobo and Maggie however, and that is where the winner of the game will likely be determined.
What do you guys think? Any other interesting things you can draw out of this data? What are your final predictions for how the vote will go down?