Can Opener
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 642
|
Post by Can Opener on Feb 12, 2021 21:47:36 GMT
The main difference I see on Grogu is that he's been playing harder and been much more invested. If he gets to the end and the game goes the way he's planning, I think he would be deserving. I don't think Rey has had THAT hard of a path though. Most of the rounds in the hole were pretty easy, while everyone else had to navigate lots of tribe swaps and survive on small tribes. She did survive the double elimination round and advantagegeddon, though, and that's impressive. Based on relationships alone, she should not have survived advantagegeddon. She let Cleric and Michael become closer with each other than they were to her despite them having basically nothing to do for weeks of the game but talk to one another. But she did win over Snow Leopard and get her to give her coins, which was ultimately the reason she was able to force a tie and survive. I'm rooting for Dark Rey, but I really hope she doesn't just kind of passively accept everyone wanting to take her to the end. She has a lot of options right now. She really needs to fight for the best options for her, and I think that's going with Grogu and Cleric if possible. If she accepts a F3 with someone like Maggie or Bees or T/H, then I hope she loses. She can do better for herself.
|
|
Can Opener
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 642
|
Post by Can Opener on Feb 12, 2021 21:50:09 GMT
I actually do think both Grogu and Dark Rey have decent excuses for why they were voted out, but that doesn't mean that getting voted out was a strength. It's still a negative for me. Being voted out drastically reduced their threat levels and is part of why everyone wants them in the end.
|
|
|
Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Feb 12, 2021 21:51:58 GMT
I'm not sure I agree, and I honestly don't get where the sentiment comes from. Like, if a returnee plays well, it's often because of the fact that they got voted out prior. It's a chance to fix your mistakes and move forward. To be a returnee and not get revolving door'd out means you really put in the effort, and I feel like that should be applauded to some extent. I guess the way I see it, in Survivor a lot of what is good or bad is subjective right? Like being a huge target can be good play if it means you survive despite being targeted or bad play if it made your path to the end unnecessarily risky. There are ways to sell most styles of play, and most styles of play can be good in specific circumstances. One of the few objectively bad things you can do in Survivor is get voted out. Like arguably the number one goal of the game is to avoid being voted out, and if you fail to do that, to me that will always, always set you back as a player. Maybe there are mitigating circumstances, like reasons you didn't fully deserve to go when you did. I'm willing to take those into consideration. But if you get voted out, to me that is a weakness, not a strength. And so often with returnees, they treat getting voted out and returning and not immediately going home as a strength, like it's something that in and of itself is impressive enough to deserve a Jury vote and like, no. Not getting voted out is the baseline, and you've already failed it. So the rest of your game must be really fucking impressive to make up for it. The argument that "oh I didn't get revolving doored" to me is bullshit because most players don't get the chance to be revolving doored, because when most players get voted out, that's the end for them. And really, getting voted out probably hurts your relationships, but it does significantly lower your threat level. In many ways, it's an advantage. It doesn't matter to me what work you did to get back into the game. Returning to the game is a gift. You were given a gift that 90% of people voted out do not get. I've never entered any kind of Redemption Island situation after getting voted out in a game. When I get voted out, for me that's always been the end. You can still play a good game having been voted out and returned, but it is a black mark on your game, especially if there are no extenuating circumstances which can partially excuse your initial elimination. And in order to make up for it, I think you need to play an aggressive, proactive game in which you have agency and influence and get yourself into the best possible F3 or F2 you can. No play is purely good or purely bad, and to assume as much is missing the bigger picture. There's room for grey, because trying to predict the future is basically impossible unless you have the knowledge of literally everything, which no one does. Every good play has bad points to it, even for the people who benefit the most from them. Every option taken is countless doors closed in favour of what looks the best at the moment. Sure, in hindsight we can look back and say "yeah that was good" or "yeah that was bad", but how often can one say anything for certain in the heat of the moment? This game has had 9 returnees total, and only 8 players who never got voted out prior to the 11 player merge. In a game with as many returnees and second chances as this one, your expectations have to shift a bit to account for that fact. Would you say all 8 players who didn't get voted out are playing 'good' games? Because some are certainly playing better than others this round. I would sincerely argue that yes, not being revolving doored is a thing. Because the second you come back into the game, it does not matter how or where, you instantly become everyone's newest meal and have to play around the fact that the second you are not immune, everyone will look at you as the newest consensus vote if you don't immediately do something to make keeping you worthwhile. Being able to do that is a skill in and of itself! I agree with this mostly, ftr. Returnees have no room to play passively, and they need to really consider what happened to them and how they can play to not meet the same fate.
|
|
A Rock
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 507
|
Post by A Rock on Feb 12, 2021 21:54:20 GMT
No one has the slightest clue because everyone's so laser focused on Bardvoacdave, that they won't see it until it's too late. Even past Bardvocado and Dave it's just like "MAGGIE IS THE REAL POWER" or "challenge threat droids"! Grogu and T&H are so deeply under the radar while having their hands elbow deep in everything. It's quite a position they're in. I don't buy that Grogu has no salt left and isn't playing hardball the reason why they were targeted in the first place? Or at least won't that be the perception of the jury? Grogu was voted out the first time because he swapped into a minority, said help I'm a replacement player and have no friends, and people started getting ready to adopt him, then the alternate boots won immunity and he was toast. Then yes he played hardball on the way out the door, in fact he went scorched earth and burned his entire reputation on the way out. He was like villain #1 in the entire game upon his return. The way he's dug out of that hole has been astounding. I mean I guess I don't exactly view it as astounding. I see it as T&H realizing they can use Grogu as a battering ram rather than just killing him off again, like, if T&H so pleased they could sink Grogu anytime, not sure the reverse is true. Though, Grogu seems to not want T&H at the very end, but if he does, I feel like he's just a lesser version of the same game. If T&H didn't exist, then I think I'd be much higher on Grogu's game, and if they gets a Grogu/Rey/Cleric F3 they deserve the win, I'm just unsure of what other matchups they have where people don't either discount them or not like how they explain their game as a revenge trip.
|
|
|
Post by Owen Wilson as Kenny Bostick on Feb 12, 2021 21:56:50 GMT
I actually do think both Grogu and Dark Rey have decent excuses for why they were voted out, but that doesn't mean that getting voted out was a strength. It's still a negative for me. Being voted out drastically reduced their threat levels and is part of why everyone wants them in the end. Yeah it's bad to get voted out. I agree with that. Grogu has a decent excuse and has had such a redemption story, from toxic non-person to puppet master, that I think he'd be a deserving winner. Rey kind of got fluke RNG'd out. Not quite, but she was nobody's actual preference to go and it was a twisty TC. From what we're seeing, she's not quite as impressive currently as Grogu, but who knows. I think Grogu should win, should overcome that "but you're a returnee" burden, if he can get to the end with other returnees (obviously) or one of the weaker people in the game, like honestly Bonobo or Bees or Droids. But I don't really expect it, because the players might not see how impactful he is. I wouldn't object to a Rey win either but I think her path is narrower.
|
|
Sunny
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 199
|
Post by Sunny on Feb 12, 2021 21:57:05 GMT
i think grogu will beat the pants off rey if they keep playing the way they are. she would need to cut him in favor of someone unimpressive.
|
|
Sunny
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 199
|
Post by Sunny on Feb 12, 2021 21:59:34 GMT
having been voted out should absolutely be a black mark. not an insurmountable one, but no i don't care if you survived having poor relationships that is the price of getting a second chance
|
|
Phoenix
Monsters of the Construction Site
Rose from ashes :D
Posts: 1,380
|
Post by Phoenix on Feb 12, 2021 22:00:24 GMT
I don't really care about returnees and stuff but I'll give my opinion since we're at the topic.
I don't think returnees really have an advantage at the end of the day because yes people regard them as less of the threat leading to them making it further into the game often but they ARE less of a threat because juries favor main game players over returnees in the end. But then ig it depends on if you care about the means or the end but eh.
It's fairly balanced in a way but very unfair in other ways. I think that juries not favoring returnees is reasonable because if that was not the case, there would be more returnees revolving doored. It's like a cycle.
|
|
|
Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Feb 12, 2021 22:00:56 GMT
Echoing Owen here.
Grogu has great FTC chances if they can explain just how things went. Grogu can beat Bees/Droids/Bonobo at FTC with a decent FTC performance.
Rey's way to the crown is smaller and is probably filled with appeals to the emotions of the other players. About how the first round screwed her out of being able to make the relationships she wanted or really needed. About watching her friends and allies dying around her with no way to save them without falling over herself, and using that time to not save her doomed allies, but by building new and stronger bonds with the players who she could rely on to be more stable.
|
|
Sunny
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 199
|
Post by Sunny on Feb 12, 2021 22:01:00 GMT
grogu and rey do deserve extra sympathy because their eliminations were raw deals but i'm sure as hell not going to count that in their *favor*
|
|
Phoenix
Monsters of the Construction Site
Rose from ashes :D
Posts: 1,380
|
Post by Phoenix on Feb 12, 2021 22:01:43 GMT
People keep returnees at the beginning generally because they are lower threat levels and the reason to that I believe is because they have less connections and juries favor non returnees.
I think maybe a reason redemption island even works is because of the jury's bias.
|
|
Sunny
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 199
|
Post by Sunny on Feb 12, 2021 22:01:45 GMT
rey's way to the crown is to start playing a bigger, splashier game immediately
|
|
|
Post by OperatorMeme on Feb 12, 2021 22:03:03 GMT
Rey's way to the crown is smaller and is probably filled with appeals to the emotions of the other players. About how the first round screwed her out of being able to make the relationships she wanted or really needed. About watching her friends and allies dying around her with no way to save them without falling over herself, and using that time to not save her doomed allies, but by building new and stronger bonds with the players who she could rely on to be more stable. Pitching this in an FTC is really difficult without just sounding whiny. I'd agree with Sunny, she needs to be flashier going forward.
|
|
|
Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Feb 12, 2021 22:04:11 GMT
Rey's way to the crown is smaller and is probably filled with appeals to the emotions of the other players. About how the first round screwed her out of being able to make the relationships she wanted or really needed. About watching her friends and allies dying around her with no way to save them without falling over herself, and using that time to not save her doomed allies, but by building new and stronger bonds with the players who she could rely on to be more stable. Pitching this in an FTC is really difficult without just sounding whiny. I'd agree with Sunny, she needs to be flashier going forward. Agreed, but I'm working under the assumption this doesn't happen because Rey doesn't seem like the big moves player.
|
|
Can Opener
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 642
|
Post by Can Opener on Feb 12, 2021 22:05:28 GMT
No getting voted out is objectively bad. It is one of the few things I can say with certainty is always a flaw in a player's game, maybe unless they volunteered in order to return a la McMenno. Could it maybe benefit them in the long-run? Sure. Is it still a flaw? Yes. And if it benefits them, then it's even more of a flaw.
I wouldn't say all players who didn't get voted out were playing good games, nor would I say all of the players who did get voted out were playing bad games. I would say though that all of the players who got voted out have a flaw that the players who didn't get voted out don't have, and that should be taken into consideration in an FTC scenario.
I'm sure it does take skill to not be revolving doored. But also it takes skill to not be voted out. And if your case to me as a Juror is, "I was voted out. but I came back and now I'm here!" that isn't a case at all. I think if I was to vote for a returnee, I'd need them to say, "Yes, I was voted out, and that was a flaw in my game. Here are the reasons you should overlook it and vote for me anyway." and I so seldom see it framed that way. I think Grogu actually would frame his argument that way, so if he makes FTC, I look forward to it.
It's not even about not meeting the same fate, it's about recognizing the fact that being voted out automatically puts you at a Jury disadvantage and you must do everything you can to get yourself to your optimal endgame, even if it means taking on more short-term risk. Really it's what I would expect from any player perceived as a "goat" or a nonthreatening player, and for me, being a returnee does somewhat put you on that level in my mind, maybe with some exceptions. You automatically have something that for many Jurors will work against you, and you need to compensate it by accepting nothing less than the best possible F3.
|
|