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Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Jan 15, 2021 21:37:49 GMT
I'll try to get to this again tonight before I fall asleep. We'll see, though.
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Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Jan 16, 2021 5:22:42 GMT
Redemption Island Despite a really interesting TC last round, this eviction looks pretty set in stone. Not that this is a bad thing [getting rid of inactivity is always great], but it does make it boring. 1) Cleric - Cleric seems to have top billing this round, but with Wolf's departure I'd say his stock fell a little bit. Not enough to make a warrantable difference mind, but he's now closer to Cera and Rey than he was the round prior. Doing well here, so far. As a bit of a warning, I also get the opinion that Cleric can topple INCREDIBLY QUICKLY here, given the right circumstances. 2) Michael Cera - But I do think Cera comes with better long-term survival than Cleric does, because Cleric seems to be the more obvious "running this shit" type, and Cera's also more active. I have good hopes for Cera to survive RI and make the distance. 3) Dark Rey - Normally I'd be a bit more annoyed at a group of 3 taking over RI, but Cleric/Cera/Rey have been the best RI trio that I've seen in quite a while, and while Rey feels a bit more along for the ride, I think her connection to Jerky does mean something, and there may be potential upset value here. 4) Timothée Chalamet - I have no issues with Tim, but I want to see more of where he stands before I make a move here. 5) Beef Jerky - Only slightly more active than Pineapple. 6) Pineapple - Literally not here. Obvious boot.
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Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Jan 16, 2021 5:38:32 GMT
So, one very important thing has happened here that has suddenly made this tribe less interesting in the short term. But I think this requires a redo of the tribal hierarchy as a whole. 1) Ranger - I think Ranger still gets top billing, basically by being a slightly less visible Avocado. Having Snow Leopard targeting them is a non-issue because of how hard they blew up their game, and it seems to have even worked out slightly in Ranger's favour for this to have happened when Ranger's in a good position, because this means Snow Leopard can't blow up on them later. 2) Avocado - It's not so much that Avocado rises here, more that Tortoise & Hare fall. All in all, great position to be in right now, but I'm wary of Avocado's long term prospects. 3) Bard - Bard's still in a great position here, and is able to coast through this Tribal Council with alpomb, coasting into a really solid potential majority position on the tribe. This is a great spot for Bard. 4) The Tortoise & The Hare - Poor Tortoise/Hare. This isn't even their fault, but now they have to answer for Snow Leopard and have been put on the back foot because of it. I have faith in them still, but this will hurt them if they can't make up for the lost ground. 5) Gummy Bear - I value Gummy Bear here over anyone else, mostly because Gummy Bear is in an incredibly safe position from being at the bottom. With this tribe being incredibly competent, I doubt that Gummy Bear is in much trouble here, but I'm not so confident about later on. 6) Monk - Monk's only positive connections, at least from what I can tell, are Snow Leopard, and a relationship with Bard/Ranger that is far more tenuous than they seem to realize. This is a problem for Monk, who can't seem to catch a break here. 7) Bonobo - Once this TC is over, Bonobo is in hot water as the easy target, with no solid relationships to hold onto. I'm very curious to see how they try to work themselves out of this hole, but I don't know if the tribe will let them. 8) Snow Leopard - Did I say problematic in the long run? I meant problematic immediately. Snow Leopard has effectively blown up their game by not realizing that everyone talks to everyone, and the information they shared was sent too fast to too many people. I don't think Snow Leopard has much of a chance later on in the game, but I want to see them try.
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Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Jan 16, 2021 5:54:06 GMT
Dark Olive Green I FINALLY UNDERSTAND HOW THIS TRIBE WORKS! It took a while for the details to leak through, but here's where things stand: 1) ...Bees? - The bees are in a great spot as long as no one notices it. That's the big problem, because the second someone puts it together that Bees is allied literally everywhere, their house of cards will tumble faster than Dave Thomas, Founder of Wendy's will post complaining that you didn't use his full username. 2) The Tragedy of Darth Plagueis - This dark star is rising fast and there's NO STOPS ON THE PLAGUEIS TRAIN! With Finn's medevac and subsequent founding of the old people alliance, a precarious position to start this tribe in has had the stars suddenly align in their favour. 3) Dave Thomas, Founder of Wendy's - I think the Plagueis/Dave/Maggie alliance is set to run this tribe, and maybe even larger portions of the game! Dave's incredibly close connection to ...Bees? is what puts him ahead of Maggie for me, because I think he has more options 4) Maggie Smith - I overestimated Maggie last time, but I don't think it was by too much. She's in a solid spot with an alliance I can see lasting a long time, and has definitely found her footing. 5) C-3P0 & R2-D2 - The droids aren't in a bad position, but they are in a precarious one, because I worry about their position in this game long term. Frankly put, Zero's a sinking ship and I don't think the droids can save them, and Zero seems to be their best ally. 6) Lindsay Lohan & Lindsay Lohan - I had high hopes for the Lindsays, but they seemed to completely squandered it and have... one ally. Lindsays are social enough to make something happen, but they need to start moving. 7) Zero III - I'm pretty sure Zero has two allies right now, and one of them isn't even close. Zero's in a LARGE problem in this tribe, because he doesn't even know it and doesn't want more allies. This is bad new bunnies, and Zero is quickly lining up as an easy boot. I think Zero may be booted over Grogu, actually. 8) Grogu - Grogu's only here because they just replaced in, and replacing in is always tricky. The Robots have seemed to lend him a hand, though, which is reassuring. I want to see them do well!
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Sunny
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 199
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Post by Sunny on Jan 16, 2021 9:08:16 GMT
to be fair, i think monk just did catch a break with snow leopard self destructing at just the right moment to save him
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Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Jan 16, 2021 15:38:51 GMT
I guess, but it's not much of a break.
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Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Jan 25, 2021 18:18:35 GMT
Yeah yeah yeah I'm late. Life sucks sometimes. Maroon Tribe 1) Avocado - I really think Avocado just won out here and has connections abound. I wouldn't worry about Avocado being targeted on this tribe any time soon. 2) The Tortoise & The Hare - They seem to be in a very dominant position here, and should be able to get basically whatever they want. I'm really intrigued to see how this goes. 3) ...Bees? - Despite the initial dislike from Torhare, they seem to be in a position where taking them out is at best hard and worst impossible since Avocado joined. I'd be a bit more worried if these tribes were designed to last longer because I don't think Bees allies are having a great time, but Bees themselves should be fine. 4) Bard - Bard seems to be coasting in this tribe, which is fine as it stands and isn't someone that I'd be worried about here, but they don't seem to hold much power. 5) Grogu - I really think Grogu & the droids are basically interchangeable in the bottom rungs here, because the tribe doesn't even seem to have an amazing idea of who's at the bottom. I value Grogu a bit higher, mostly because I think Grogu's done a better job of not being seen as a threat. 6) C-3P0 & R2-D2 - The droids are in hot water here. They're seen as a couple with Bees, and as a sociable, threatening player. I don't think they'll make it through this vote without serious manuevering.
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Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Jan 25, 2021 18:27:43 GMT
Tyrian Purple Tribe 1) Maggie Smith - I seriously think Maggie has top billing on this tribe and anyone who disagrees can fight me because there is no one on this tribe who matters that isn't directly tied to Maggie. Admittedly the difference in the top three spots is fairly minimal, but I think that Maggie edges out the others. 2) Dave Thomas, Founder of Wendy's - As part of the big alliance on the tribe, I think that Dave is sitting in a very solid position. I think he's slightly worse off than Maggie in the long run, but it's not a problem for now. 3) The Tragedy of Darth Plagueis - Hey look, it's the last member of the alliance! Nothing special to say here. 4) Bonobo - I seriously think that Bonobo has done an amazing job of ingratiating themselves to Maggie and Dave in particular, to the point where they may be considered to be kept around over the Lindsays if they play their cards right. I hear more about how great Bonobo is from those two than I ever do about the Lindsays. 5) Lindsay Lohan & Lindsay Lohan - I'm consistently confused by these two. What are they doing? When are they going to make a move? Do they have allies other than Maggie? 6) Ranger - Ranger got super swapfucked here, admittedly, but has done a rather poor job of ingratiating themselves into this tribe, and they seem to know it. I don't see much of a way out for Ranger.
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Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Jan 25, 2021 18:28:29 GMT
I'm going to decline to do a lengthy Redemption Island post, but long story short:
1) Dark Rey 2) Michael Cera 3) Cleric 4) Monk 5) Zero III
Gummy Bear does not matter.
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Spam
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 428
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Post by Spam on Jan 26, 2021 1:39:08 GMT
Yay, this is back!
I see Droids surviving this TC since Avocado's running the tribe and they want them to stay. I'd also put Dark Rey below Michael and Cleric since they have a F2.
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Post by Supervisor Silverclaw on Jan 26, 2021 1:44:10 GMT
Life really got in the way of giving me the time for this, hahaha.
My concern about droids is you already have three on them - Totoise/Hare, Bard, and Grogu. The three can go together for this and I seriously think Avocado would stick out their neck for the Droids.
I also value Dark Rey for her connection to Monk that the other two don't have.
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Can Opener
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 642
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Post by Can Opener on Jan 26, 2021 1:47:32 GMT
Zero also prefers Dark Rey to at least Cleric. I'm not sure about vs Michael.
Michael might be number one while Dark Rey is number two, but I definitely think Cleric is below Dark Rey and would have been more likely to go if there was an actual elimination this round.
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Can Opener
Monsters of the Construction Site
Posts: 642
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Post by Can Opener on Jan 26, 2021 1:48:53 GMT
All it would take would have been Cleric nominated with either Michael or Dark Rey and I think he'd have been finished. The only way I think Dark Rey or Michael goes is against the other.
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Phoenix
Monsters of the Construction Site
Rose from ashes :D
Posts: 1,380
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Post by Phoenix on Jan 26, 2021 1:51:46 GMT
Life really got in the way of giving me the time for this, hahaha. My concern about droids is you already have three on them - Totoise/Hare, Bard, and Grogu. The three can go together for this and I seriously think Avocado would stick out their neck for the Droids. I also value Dark Rey for her connection to Monk that the other two don't have. I forced that connection to happen :3
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Phoenix
Monsters of the Construction Site
Rose from ashes :D
Posts: 1,380
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Post by Phoenix on Jan 26, 2021 15:14:38 GMT
Yay, this is back! I see Droids surviving this TC since Avocado's running the tribe and they want them to stay. I'd also put Dark Rey below Michael and Cleric since they have a F2. Aren't Dark Rey and Monk a duo as well?
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